Bosnia and Herzegovina will hold its ninth general elections on October 2. The elections will take place under the influence of ethnic-nationalist threats by individual entities and of the general geopolitical circumstances. Thus, the sentiment in the country is strongly influenced by the Russian war in Ukraine. The leaders of the Serb entity, the Republika Srpska, openly sympathize with Russia’s imperialist ambitions. “The President of the Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, has been blocking Bosnia’s accession to NATO and the EU for years. In return, Putin is granting him election campaign support. The two leaders met in September,” stated Jasna Causevic, expert on genocide prevention and the Responsibility to Protect at the Society for Threatened Peoples (STP). “Due to the ethnic division of the country, it is easy for other states to exert influence. Not only Serbia and Russia are trying to destabilize Bosnia to promote their interests – but also the EU member states Croatia and Hungary.” 

The concept of ethno-nationalist political parties has a devastating effect on the multi-ethnic, multi-religious, and multicultural country. When it comes to elections, many people cast their vote based on the aspect of ethnicity – not on competency. “If it is possible to win elections by preaching hate against other ethnic communities, this will in consequence lead to increasingly extreme positions. The Bosnian state is paralyzed by the comprehensive rights of the ethnic entities within the state,” Causevic explained. “Many people would prefer to move closer to the West, away from Russia. Also, as they don’t see a future for themselves in Bosnia, may decide to leave the country.” Those who are stuck in the mindset of the 1990s stay behind, causing an ongoing division of the country along ethnic lines.

According to a recent UN report, Bosnia and Herzegovina is one of the countries with the most significant population decline – with an annual decrease of 1.5 percent. Over the past eight years, almost half a million people have left the country. The slight economic growth between 2018 and 2020 was ended by the Covid-pandemic. Now, we are seeing inflation and an energy and food crisis. As there is little hope for economic growth or better social welfare, the overall situation will hardly improve.

The changes to the electoral system suggested by the High Representative of the International Community would only make the situation worse: “With his suggestions, Christian Schmidt is following the demands of Croatia, which are just as destructive for Bosnia as the demands of Serbia. It is unacceptable that – for whatever reasons – a German politician tolerates discrimination against Jews and Roma in Bosnia while at the same time showing readiness to negotiate with Croatian extremists,” Causevic emphasized.