Elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina: STP Warns of Further Ethno-National Polarization

The Society for Threatened Peoples (STP) views the outcome of the elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina as a worrying sign for the country’s political development. Although Milorad Dodik was barred from running for public office himself due to his final conviction, he dominated the election campaign in the Republika Srpska. According to preliminary results, his party, the SNSD, is once again clearly in the lead. The SNSD candidates for the State Presidency and the presidency of the Republika Srpska are also leading by a wide margin.

“The notion that Milorad Dodik’s exclusion from public office would also break his political influence has proven to be false. Dodik had a decisive impact on this election and ultimately announced the victory himself. He was not on the ballot—yet politically, he was omnipresent,” explains Belma Zulčić, director of the Society for Threatened Peoples in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Thanks to Trump: Election Victory Strengthens Dodik’s Secessionist Course

From the STP’s perspective, Dodik’s framing of the election victory within an international context is particularly concerning. After the initial results were announced, he stated that without Donald Trump’s “great victory” in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, he and his political movement would likely be “politically dead” today. Thanks to the changed political environment, he said, they are now “political victors.” At the same time, Dodik referred to the support of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Against the backdrop of the Republika Srpska’s intensive lobbying efforts in the U.S., Dodik’s statements carry additional weight. Among the explicit goals were the lifting of U.S. sanctions against Dodik and his inner circle, as well as securing political support for greater independence for the Republika Srpska. In October 2025, the Trump administration lifted sanctions against Dodik, members of his family, political allies, and companies associated with them.

“We view with great concern that Dodik is banking on a shifting international balance of power to advance his goal of seceding the Republika Srpska. Following the SNSD’s election success, there is a fear that Donald Trump could further embolden this course. The possibility that the U.S. president could support the recognition of the Republika Srpska as an independent state must be taken seriously by the EU and the German government,” warns Zulčić. “Anyone who believes that appeasing nationalist and separatist forces will lead to greater stability fails to understand the political dynamics in Bosnia and Herzegovina.”

At the same time, the election results show that ethno-nationalist and national-conservative parties remain strong not only in the Republika Srpska and among Croatian parties. Even among the predominantly Bosniak voters in the Federation, the national-conservative SDA has made significant gains.

“Ethnonational politics in Bosnia and Herzegovina is not limited to the Serbian or Croatian political spectrum. Nationalist forces have once again made significant gains even among Bosniak voters. This shows how difficult it remains to establish a political alternative based on civic, pluralistic, and state-wide principles,” explains Zulčić. At the same time, the results do not indicate a uniform political shift among the Bosniak electorate; different political currents remain clearly discernible.

Demands on the EU and the German Federal Government

The STP calls on the German Federal Government and the European Union to draw clear lines against ethno-nationalist and separatist politics. Political stability must not be bought at the expense of concessions to actors who weaken state institutions, challenge court rulings, or threaten to redraw the country’s territorial boundaries. The territorial integrity and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the binding nature of international court rulings, and the foundations of the Dayton Peace Agreement are non-negotiable, STP emphasizes.

At the same time, Germany and the EU must provide stronger support to those forces that advocate for the rule of law, independent media, an active civil society, and a shared European state. “Bosnia and Herzegovina must not be permanently reduced to three ethnic power blocs. Thirty years after the end of the war, the country needs a political order in which the rights of the individual do not depend on their ethnic affiliation,” demands the STP.

You can reach Belma Zulčić, Director of the STP section in Bosnia and Herzegovina, at ab.ten.hib@as_vbfg or (+387) 61 220 883 or (+387) 33 213 707.