Threat of a New Escalation in the Middle East: War Between Syria and Lebanon Would Have Devastating Consequences for Minorities

The Society for Threatened Peoples (STP) warns of a new war in the Middle East. U.S. President Donald Trump initially announced on the sidelines of the G7 summit in France—and later reiterated—that Syria would fight the Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah in Lebanon.

“Although Syria’s leader al-Scharaa has rejected Trump’s proposal, there are many indications that the leader of the Syrian Islamists would gladly fight against the hated Shiites in Lebanon. Should he receive the green light from the U.S., Turkey, and Qatar—and should Israel not object—a new war looms,” said STP Middle East consultant Dr. Kamal Sido today in Göttingen. The Iranian-backed Shiite Hezbollah had fought for years alongside Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad against Sunni Islamists and other Syrian opposition groups.

“It is questionable whether Trump really intends to implement this proposal. However, there are reports that some radical Islamists have already crossed the Lebanese border from Syria and are now in northern Lebanon. A new war between Syria and Lebanon would mean yet another catastrophe for both of these war-torn countries. The consequences would be particularly devastating for minorities,” emphasized the Middle East consultant. The German government and other NATO governments have not yet commented on Trump’s plans. The STP calls on the German government to unequivocally demand that Syria refrain from any interference in Lebanese affairs.

A total of six million people live in Lebanon. Nearly the entire population belongs to the Arab majority. In addition, there is an Armenian minority, which makes up about four percent of the population, as well as other smaller minorities. There is no single dominant religious community: Sunni Muslims and Christians are the largest religious groups, each accounting for about 30 percent of the population. “Lebanon is one of the few countries in the Middle East where numerous Christians live and are able to live,” Sido emphasizes. Other significant religious groups include Shi’ite Muslims and Druze. The country is also home to approximately 1.5 million Syrian refugees and between 210,000 and 450,000 Palestinian refugees.

Many areas in Lebanon are attacked daily by the Israeli Air Force in response to attacks by the Hezbollah militia on Israel. Many people in Lebanon are fleeing their homes. The economic situation is hardly any better than in Syria. “An intervention by Syrian Islamists in Lebanon could further destabilize the already fragile balance between the religious communities. A war in Lebanon would be a catastrophe not only for the country’s Shia and Sunni populations but also for the Christian and Druze communities,” says Sido.

In Syria, the situation remains chaotic following years of civil war and the takeover by the Islamist HTS under al-Sharaa. Many conflicts remain unresolved and could flare up at any moment. Neither the Druze issue, the Alawite issue, nor the Kurdish issue has been resolved in Syria. Millions of Syrian refugees are still in neighboring countries and have not returned to their homeland. The economic situation is catastrophic. Syria lacks everything: energy sources, medicine, and drinking water. The entire infrastructure is in a desolate state. The situation in Lebanon is no better. “The new Syrian leader al-Sharaa may appear rhetorically balanced, but in reality he is pursuing a policy of complete Islamization of the country and the establishment of a dictatorship. In Syria, kidnappings and rapes of women, as well as attacks on Druze, Alawites, Kurds, and Christians, continue to occur on a daily basis,” said the STP’s Middle East consultant.

This press release was translated from German to English using AI. If you come across errors or ambiguities, please contact us at 65]G378o6DD6CA.